The Lombard Review

Special Reports

Special editions from The Lombard Review: longer analysis tied to events, seasons and market turning points.

Economy

Labor Day: Hiring is strong enough to worry the Fed

Strong labour data forces tightening

Business

Anniversary: Four years, 500 pieces

Four-year cost-of-capital shift

Markets & Finance

Back to school: Borrowing costs top 5%

Long-end rout hits borrowing

U.S.

Independence Day: Energy independence, tested

Shale response vs inventory draw

U.S.

Memorial Day: Summer driving at $100 oil

Fuel costs squeeze real income

Personal Finance

Tax Day: Refunds from the IRS — and from Customs

IRS and CBP refunds hit cash

World

Lunar New Year: China keeps the yuan steady

Fixing management in legal limbo

Politics

Valentine's Day: Betting on the Supreme Court

Binary legal event pricing

Politics

Super Bowl: Shoppers wait for the tariff verdict

Tariff pass-through vs spending

Business

New Year: 2026 hinges on one court case

Refund contingency drives guidance

Markets & Finance

New Year's Eve: How the dollar lost its shine

Debasement trade vs reserve status

Economy

Boxing Day: Holiday shopping with missing data

Missing CPI month biases data

Economy

Christmas: The boom that arrived late

Delayed data overstates momentum

Markets & Finance

Cyber Monday: Record spending, more buy now, pay later

Deferred-payment credit risk

Markets & Finance

Black Friday: Buy now, get a refund later?

Contingent refunds on duties

Politics

Thanksgiving: Beef, tariffs and the holiday table

Food-tariff rollback pass-through

World

Singles' Day: A truce, but will China shop?

De-escalation vs weak demand

Tech

Halloween: The scariest balance sheets in AI

Circular vendor financing

World

Diwali: The rupee hits a record low

50% tariff hits export flows

Economy

Anniversary: Three years, what we got right

Three-year forecast audit

Economy

Labor Day: Hiring has stalled

Hiring freeze without layoffs

Politics

Back to school: Tariffs hit the shopping list

Apparel/electronics cost pass-through

Politics

Prime Day: Four days of discounts, and tariffs

Import-price inflation in retail

Economy

Independence Day: The real cost of the "big beautiful bill"

Growth feedback assumptions

U.S.

Memorial Day: Downgraded, and still spending

Rating loss meets fiscal bill

Personal Finance

Tax Day: The biggest tax rise in decades isn't in the tax code

Tariffs as consumption tax

World

Valentine's Day: America and Europe's trade breakup

Reciprocity threatens euro

Economy

Super Bowl: $8m ads, gloomy shoppers

Spend vs survey divergence

World

Lunar New Year: DeepSeek and China's tech comeback

Efficiency shock re-rates China tech

Politics

New Year: 2025 comes down to one word — tariffs

Guidance hinges on trade policy

Markets & Finance

New Year's Eve: The dollar's big year

Growth and rate gap drive USD

Markets & Finance

Boxing Day: Why money markets get jumpy at year-end

Turn-of-year funding spikes

Economy

Christmas: A lump of coal from the Fed

Tariff risk halves easing

Business

Cyber Monday: The hidden debt of buy now, pay later

Unreported consumer leverage

Markets & Finance

Black Friday: Shoppers race to beat the tariffs

Import pull-forward, strong dollar

U.S.

Thanksgiving: Why eggs cost more this year

Supply shocks in food CPI

World

Singles' Day: China fixes its local debt, not its shoppers

Local-debt relief vs demand stimulus

Business

Diwali: India's record IPO rush

Primary supply absorbs liquidity

Markets & Finance

Halloween: The Fed cut, and yields went up

Yields rise after cuts

Economy

Anniversary: Two years of calls, checked

Forecast error decomposition

Economy

Labor Day: Is the job market cracking?

Labour-supply vs demand weakness

Business

Prime Day: The ad business behind the discounts

Ad revenue subsidises discounts

Markets & Finance

Independence Day: Is the dollar losing its crown?

Reserve diversification pace

Economy

Memorial Day: Petrol prices and the summer inflation bump

Seasonal energy distortion

Personal Finance

Tax Day: What April tells us about the deficit

Receipts vs structural deficit

Business

Valentine's Day: The chocolate crisis

Input shock vs pricing power

Markets & Finance

Super Bowl: Does football predict the bond market?

Folklore indicators vs yields

Markets & Finance

Lunar New Year: China's stock market can't escape falling prices

Price deflation depresses earnings

Economy

New Year: Markets want six rate cuts. They'll be disappointed

Market path vs committee

Business

New Year's Eve: A dead year for deals

Financing costs freeze deals