The Lombard Review

Rising costs threaten company profits

PPI signals margin squeeze

A Walmart Supercenter in Madison Heights, Virginia
A Walmart Supercenter in Madison Heights, Virginia Photo: Ben Schumin/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 2.5

Key dataAug PPI +0.4%; core +0.2%

The August producer price index delivered an unequivocal warning of corporate profit margin destruction: headline wholesale prices advanced by 0.4 per cent month-on-month, while core wholesale prices rose 0.2 per cent, confirming that input cost inflation is accelerating across the industrial pipeline.

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – At the NASA Shuttle Logistics Depot in Cape Canaveral, Florida, the Load Control Assembly-2 (LCA-2) is uncovered for testing
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – At the NASA Shuttle Logistics Depot in Cape Canaveral, Florida, the Load Control Assembly-2 (LCA-2) is uncovered for testing Photo: Kim Shiflett/Wikimedia Commons · Public domain

The Wholesale Cost Avalanche

Producer price indices measure price pressures before they reach retail store shelves. Surging diesel transportation costs, 50 per cent steel tariffs on finished machinery, and elevated chemical feedstock prices are hitting corporate income statements with undeniable force. For industrial manufacturers, chemical processors, and food distributors, the cost of goods sold is compounding at a rate that far outpaces top-line revenue growth.

Cornfields at a farm in autumn along an I-29 southbound rest area near rural Missouri Valley, Iowa
Cornfields at a farm in autumn along an I-29 southbound rest area near rural Missouri Valley, Iowa Photo: Tony Webster/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0

The Coming Margin Squeeze

In an environment where consumer elasticity is beginning to fray, corporations can no longer pass 100 per cent of wholesale cost increases onto end-users. The unavoidable mathematical consequence is an acute compression in gross and operating margins over the upcoming third-quarter earnings season. August's producer price surge signals that the wholesale inflation pipeline is overflowing, threatening corporate America with a severe margin squeeze as input costs surge faster than customer prices can adjust.

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