The Lombard Review

AI is coming for software companies

Agentic tools threaten seat pricing

Microsoft building at Atlantic Station in Atlanta
Microsoft building at Atlantic Station in Atlanta Photo: Tyler Lahti/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

Key dataSharp Feb software ETF drawdown

The enterprise software sector suffered a catastrophic valuation collapse in early February, as specialized software ETFs plunged into deep correction territory. The panic was ignited by the sudden commercial release of advanced agentic AI developer tools, sparking an existential crisis for the software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model.

Deployed truck-mounted crane and scissor lift at Credobus bus factory construction
Deployed truck-mounted crane and scissor lift at Credobus bus factory construction Photo: Globetrotter19/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 3.0

The Death of Per-Seat Subscription Pricing

For two decades, enterprise software valuations rested on an immaculate metric: recurring revenue generated by per-seat employee licenses compounding at eighty per cent gross margins. Autonomous agentic AI tools dismantle this pricing architecture. When a single autonomous software agent can execute the customer service, sales outreach, or code maintenance workload of ten human employees, the number of corporate software seats collapses precipitously.

Container ship Hanjin Pretoria in Busan Port
Container ship Hanjin Pretoria in Busan Port Photo: Niels Johannes/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

The Transition to Outcome-Based Monetization

Software giants attempting to pivot to usage-based or outcome-based pricing face an acute margin contraction during the multi-year transition. Enterprise customers are actively consolidating software vendors and canceling redundant SaaS subscriptions to reallocate budgets into foundational AI compute. The brutal sell-off in enterprise software confirms that the AI revolution has arrived to eat the software industry itself, turning high-multiple subscription monopolies into commoditized digital labor.

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