The Fed hikes, and its chair skips the dot plot
Missing chair projection as signal
Economy
The Federal Reserve, inflation, jobs and growth: analysis of the economic cycle and the data behind it.
The rate hike the Fed can't avoid
Inflation persistence forces tightening
Special Report
Labor Day: Hiring is strong enough to worry the Fed
Strong labour data forces tightening
Blowout jobs, tighter Fed
Rule-implied rate above policy
Is the oil shock turning into wage inflation?
Second-round effects test
The market bets on a Warsh hike
Hike odds from forward curve
Three Fed officials want a hike
Minority votes signal next move
One tariff ends, another begins
Legal basis change, similar rate
Is it oil or tariffs pushing prices up?
Decomposing two supply shocks
The Fed's hawks start to multiply
Dissent build-up before hike
What does Warsh want?
Chair change as structural break
The world is running down its oil reserves
Inventory drawdown clock
Diesel prices are the warning sign
Diesel tightness leads core
Powell's final meeting
Chair transition risk
When will importers get their money?
Liquidation status drives timing
The ceasefire that didn't open the strait
Blockade replaces open conflict
Asia pays the most for Hormuz
Asia bears most crude exposure
The Fed faces a war shock
Supply-shock reaction function
Emergency oil can't fill the gap
Stock release vs flow loss
How much will oil push up prices?
Second-round effects by regime
The Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs
Legal regime break in tariff series
The job numbers, rewritten again
Benchmark revision reshapes trend
Who is Kevin Warsh?
Smaller balance sheet traded for cuts
The job market's confusing signals
Missing months break SA filters
The inflation data with a missing month
Carry-forward prices bias CPI
A 4.3% boom, reported late
Delayed GDP after shutdown
One cut, three dissents
Voting dispersion as signal
QE by another name?
Reserve management purchases
One speech that flipped the Fed odds
December odds swing on one speech
The longest shutdown's lasting cost
Unrecovered federal activity
The Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet
QT end timing
One inflation report in a data blackout
Single CPI release during shutdown
Flying blind: no jobs report
Private data substitutes for BLS
A shutdown would leave the Fed flying blind
Shutdown halts statistics
The Fed cuts, cautiously
Insurance easing; 50bp dissent
Trump's man joins the Fed
Appointments shift reaction function
911,000 jobs that never existed
Benchmark resets cut path
Just 22,000 jobs
Immigration curbs lower job trend
Trump moves to fire a Fed governor
Governance risk lifts long end
Powell opens the door to cuts
Labour downside outweighs inflation
Switzerland's 39% shock
Concentrated export exposure
How 258,000 jobs disappeared
Late-response revision bias
Trump fires the jobs data chief
Statistical agency independence
Special Report
Independence Day: The real cost of the "big beautiful bill"
Growth feedback assumptions
A divided Fed
Bimodal SEP distribution
Oil jumps as Israel strikes Iran
Oil shock into inflation swaps
