The Lombard Review

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Every Lombard Review analysis, newest first: central banks, rates, currencies, credit and corporate finance.

Markets & Finance

The 10-year hits 5.1%, its highest since 2007

Higher base rate hits rollovers

Explainer

The bond sell-off, explained

Term premium plus hike path

Economy

The Fed hikes, and its chair skips the dot plot

Missing chair projection as signal

Economy

The rate hike the Fed can't avoid

Inflation persistence forces tightening

Business

Rising costs threaten company profits

PPI signals margin squeeze

Markets & Finance

The 10-year nears 5% as oil nears $100

Energy-driven bear steepening

Special Report

Labor Day: Hiring is strong enough to worry the Fed

Strong labour data forces tightening

Special Report

Anniversary: Four years, 500 pieces

Four-year cost-of-capital shift

Economy

Blowout jobs, tighter Fed

Rule-implied rate above policy

Economy

Is the oil shock turning into wage inflation?

Second-round effects test

Business

What company filings say about tariff risk

10-Q disclosure of 301 exposure

Markets & Finance

Warsh speaks, bonds sell

Chair signal reprices tens

Markets & Finance

The market bets on a Warsh hike

Hike odds from forward curve

Politics

Trump dusts off a 1930 law to hit Canada

Discrimination statute as tariff tool

Business

Which companies can pass on higher costs

Pricing power under oil shock

Markets & Finance

Long-term rates climb as Iran talks stall

Diplomacy risk in 30Y

Special Report

Back to school: Borrowing costs top 5%

Long-end rout hits borrowing

U.S.

What Americans now pay in tariffs

Two-tier rates plus exemptions

Economy

Three Fed officials want a hike

Minority votes signal next move

Markets & Finance

Banks brace for higher rates

Asset repricing vs deposit betas

Business

The peace deal collapses, and oil jumps

Oil shock re-priced into swaps

Politics

One tariff ends, another begins

Legal basis change, similar rate

U.S.

America's emergency oil is running out

Strategic buffer exhausted

Business

The tariff refund boost to earnings

Earnings quality of refunds

Markets & Finance

Tariff refunds mean more government borrowing

Refunds swell bill supply

Economy

Is it oil or tariffs pushing prices up?

Decomposing two supply shocks

Politics

Paying tariffs while suing to get them back

Appeal keeps duties live

Special Report

Independence Day: Energy independence, tested

Shale response vs inventory draw

Business

Proving your supply chain is clean will cost you

Forced-labour compliance costs

Politics

Trump's temporary tariff is about to expire

Statutory expiry of Section 122

Economy

The Fed's hawks start to multiply

Dissent build-up before hike

World

Hormuz reopens, on paper

MOU without verification

Politics

Steel tariffs hit everything made of steel

Full-value 232 hits finished goods

Markets & Finance

Is oil being priced in yuan now?

Settlement currency migration

World

Iran closes the strait again

Re-closure shock to curve

Business

A peace deal nobody has signed

Execution risk in peace pricing

Business

Oil tankers stuck at sea

Closure strands fleet capacity

Politics

Trump's tariffs get a sturdier legal footing

Section 301 replaces emergency powers

World

Three ways the Hormuz crisis could end

Probability-weighted Hormuz scenarios

Markets & Finance

Peace, maybe: how markets price it

Scenario-weighted oil path

Special Report

Memorial Day: Summer driving at $100 oil

Fuel costs squeeze real income

Markets & Finance

$35bn of refunds, and where it goes

Cash windfall allocation

World

Iran charges ships a toll, in yuan

Non-dollar settlement for transit

Economy

What does Warsh want?

Chair change as structural break

Economy

The world is running down its oil reserves

Inventory drawdown clock

Politics

Court rules Trump's new tariff illegal too

Litigation as tariff-avoidance strategy

World

Why ships won't sail through Hormuz

Insurance premia block transits

Economy

Diesel prices are the warning sign

Diesel tightness leads core

Economy

Powell's final meeting

Chair transition risk

Markets & Finance

Who deserves the tariff refund?

Downstream buyers claim refunds