The 10-year hits 5.1%, its highest since 2007
Higher base rate hits rollovers
Markets & Finance
Bonds, stocks, currencies, credit and commodities: the latest analysis of financial markets.
The bond sell-off, explained
Term premium plus hike path
The rate hike the Fed can't avoid
Inflation persistence forces tightening
The 10-year nears 5% as oil nears $100
Energy-driven bear steepening
Warsh speaks, bonds sell
Chair signal reprices tens
The market bets on a Warsh hike
Hike odds from forward curve
Long-term rates climb as Iran talks stall
Diplomacy risk in 30Y
Banks brace for higher rates
Asset repricing vs deposit betas
The peace deal collapses, and oil jumps
Oil shock re-priced into swaps
The tariff refund boost to earnings
Earnings quality of refunds
Tariff refunds mean more government borrowing
Refunds swell bill supply
Is oil being priced in yuan now?
Settlement currency migration
Peace, maybe: how markets price it
Scenario-weighted oil path
$35bn of refunds, and where it goes
Cash windfall allocation
Iran charges ships a toll, in yuan
Non-dollar settlement for transit
Who deserves the tariff refund?
Downstream buyers claim refunds
The refunds that will add to America's borrowing
Refunds raise bill issuance
A ceasefire, and oil falls
Oil premium half-life
What bond markets say about the oil shock
Breakevens up, reals down
Tariffs go up, refunds go out
Refund order vs rate increase
Who gets the $166bn tariff refund?
Importer balance sheets gain claim
Tariffs raise $30bn a month. Not for long?
Refund risk on ~$30bn monthly receipts
The dollar's Warsh moment
Chair-regime premium in FX
The yen nears Japan's line in the sand
Pace-based intervention trigger
Banks cash in on chaos
Markets revenue offsets NII
Japan's 30-year bond hits a record
Life-insurer demand gap
The job market's confusing signals
Missing months break SA filters
Tariffs are now funding the government
Customs receipts fund deficit
Companies brace for a tariff refund
Refund contingency accounting
2025 in five charts: gold up, dollar down
Dollar debasement narrative tested
Paramount goes hostile
Debt-funded cash vs stock offer
Japan's last cheap-money trade
BoJ hike narrows differential
Japan's bond yields hit 17-year highs
BoJ hike priced into curve
AI's biggest spenders feel the credit squeeze
Supply indigestion in IG tech
What if the tariffs have to be refunded?
Refund exposure if IEEPA falls
Meta borrows $30bn for AI
Debt funds AI capex
The Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet
QT end timing
The AI money loop
Vendor equity funds customer capex
Money markets flash a warning
Repo pressure signals scarcity
Are there more cockroaches in bank balance sheets?
Idiosyncratic losses as clustering
Japan's new leader weakens the yen
Fiscal dovishness weakens yen
Gold breaks $3,700
Reserve demand overrides real yields
Oracle's $455bn order book
RPO requires debt-funded capex
