The Treasury starts buying back its own debt
The US Treasury has officially launched an innovative liquidity-support mechanism: its first regular sovereign debt buyback programme since the early 2000s.
Markets & Finance
The Fed slows its balance-sheet shrinking
At its May policy meeting, the Federal Reserve delivered an important structural adjustment to its monetary plumbing by announcing a substantial taper of its quantitative tightening (QT) programme.
Explainer
How to spot Japan's secret yen buying
Tokyo’s foreign exchange authorities have adopted an asymmetric, stealthy approach to currency market management.
Meta spends more, investors flee
Mark Zuckerberg discovered that Wall Street’s patience with open-ended technology capex has strict boundaries.
The market gives up on rate cuts
The sovereign bond market has executed a brutal capitulation.
Bank profits hold up in a higher-for-longer world
First-quarter earnings from Wall Street’s banking titans demonstrated that premier financial institutions have adapted with remarkable agility to restrictive interest rates.
How far will Japan let the yen fall?
The yen has reached the danger zone, sliding toward 151.8 per dollar—its weakest level in thirty-four years.
Japan raised rates. The yen fell anyway
The Bank of Japan delivered its first interest rate increase in seventeen years, yet the immediate market response was a counterintuitive slide in the domestic currency.
The Fed's banking lifeline expires
On 11 March, the Federal Reserve officially ceased issuing new loans under the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), terminating the emergency lending facility launched during the regional banking panic of 2023.
Capital One's real prize in Discover: the network
Capital One’s proposed $35.3 billion all-stock takeover of Discover Financial represents one of the most audacious banking consolidations since the 2008 financial crisis.
Office loans are going bad
The quiet deterioration in commercial real estate debt is entering a critical phase across commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).
Nvidia adds $277bn in a day
On 22 February, Nvidia staged a display of market capitalization creation without historical precedent.
A hot inflation report hits short-term bonds
Fixed-income bulls received a rude awakening from the January consumer price index, as headline inflation printed at 3.1 per cent and core prices surged by an uncomfortably hot 0.4 per cent month-on-month.
Special Report
Super Bowl: Does football predict the bond market?
Wall Street has long indulged in statistical folklore, none more enduring than the Super Bowl Indicator—the superstitious notion that an NFC victory predicts an equity bull market while an AFC win foretells a bear cycle.
Special Report
Lunar New Year: China's stock market can't escape falling prices
As China enters the Year of the Dragon, domestic equity markets are finding little reason for celebratory animal spirits.
The Treasury promises no more surprises
The US Treasury accomplished a masterclass in market psychology with its February quarterly refunding statement.
Banks pay the bill for last year's failures
America’s premier banking institutions are paying the final financial bill for the regional banking panics of early 2023.
Banks borrow from the Fed to earn more from the Fed
In the quiet corners of central bank plumbing, a lucrative arbitrage trade has flourished.
Seven stocks, almost a third of the market
The concentration of the US stock market has reached proportions that challenge modern portfolio theory.
Special Report
New Year: Markets want six rate cuts. They'll be disappointed
Wall Street enters 2024 in a state of euphoric anticipation, with forward markets pricing in six quarter-point interest rate reductions beginning as early as March.
Special Report
Boxing Day: The year-end squeeze in money markets
While equity investors were enjoying eggnog and holiday rallies, money market desks were navigating the quiet, annual liquidity squeeze that accompanies year-end balance-sheet reporting.
Special Report
Christmas: Is the Santa rally real?
The final trading days of December are traditionally greeted on Wall Street with mystical references to the 'Santa Claus rally'—the statistical tendency for equities to drift higher into year-end.
Japan is the last to keep rates below zero
The Bank of Japan stands alone as the final holdout of negative interest rate policy.
Can the Fed really cut six times?
Financial markets have fully embraced the fantasy of an immaculate macroeconomic landing.
Companies rush to borrow before rates fall
Corporate financial officers have witnessed a miraculous transformation in borrowing conditions.
The great bond rally
November 2023 will go down as one of the most explosive fixed-income rallies on record.
Special Report
Black Friday: Retailers finally have the right amount of stock
Black Friday arrived with an unfamiliar sight across American retail: tidy shelves, disciplined inventory, and the near-total absence of panic clearance sales.
Special Report
Thanksgiving: Bond investors finally have something to be thankful for
As American families gathered for Thanksgiving, fixed-income fund managers enjoyed a rare moment of genuine gratitude.
Are financial conditions tight or loose? Depends who you ask
Ask a macro hedge fund manager whether financial conditions are tight or loose, and the answer will depend entirely on which financial conditions index (FCI) they consult.
Special Report
Diwali: India's festive boom runs on credit
As millions celebrated Diwali across India, cash registers rang to the sound of an unprecedented consumer spending boom.
The Treasury borrows less than feared, and bonds soar
Fixed-income markets experienced one of their most explosive duration rallies in recent memory following the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement.
The Treasury blinks
Confronted with a sovereign debt market on the verge of systemic indigestion and ten-year yields flirting with 5.0 per cent, the US Treasury executed a tactical retreat on 31 October.
Alphabet spends more, grows less, and pays for it
Alphabet’s third-quarter earnings report delivered an instructive lesson in modern equity market unforgiveness.
The bond vigilantes are back
The legendary bond vigilantes—the institutional investors who punish undisciplined sovereign borrowers by aggressively dumping their debt—have emerged from their three-decade hibernation.
The 10-year hits 5%. Why now?
On 19 October, the benchmark ten-year US Treasury yield touched 4.99 per cent, bringing the totemic 5.0 per cent threshold into direct sight for the first time since July 2007.
China's hidden local debt problem
Beijing’s attempts to defuse its municipal debt crisis have entered an intricate phase of balance-sheet alchemy.
Banks' profit peak is here
Third-quarter earnings reports from America’s premier banking institutions painted a superficially glittering picture.
After the Hamas attack, the rush to safety faded fast
The horrific Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October initially triggered the standard geopolitical playbook across trading desks: an instinctive flight to safe-haven assets, bidding up gold, crude oil, and US Treasuries.
Strong jobs, falling bonds
The September employment report delivered an absolute blowout, with non-farm payrolls expanding by an astonishing 336,000 jobs—nearly double consensus forecasts.
Long bonds are selling off for a new reason
A profound shift has occurred in the sovereign debt market.
How weak will Japan let the yen go?
The yen’s relentless slide toward 147 against the dollar has put currency traders on high alert for official intervention from the Ministry of Finance.
Special Report
Anniversary: Our first year, graded
One year ago, this column commenced with a simple premise: that the most aggressive central bank tightening cycle in forty years would inevitably collide with private balance sheets.
Special Report
Labor Day: The job market is cooling the right way
For eighteen months, monetary orthodoxy insisted that cooling inflation required engineering a painful surge in unemployment.
Bonds finally pay more than inflation
The sovereign bond market has crossed a monumental psychological threshold.
China's prices are falling. Its currency could be next
Deflation is officially stalking the Chinese economy, and the People’s Bank of China faces an acute monetary trilemma.
Why long bonds pay more — two very different answers
The relentless ascent of ten-year Treasury yields toward 4.1 per cent has ignited a fierce theoretical debate across fixed-income desks.
The Treasury needs more money, and companies will feel it
The sovereign borrowing machine is accelerating, and the private sector is about to feel the draft.
Why banks are selling their best loans
In the banking sector, capital management has taken a pragmatic and defensive turn.
