Did inflation's progress survive the revisions?

Fixed-income markets held their breath on 9 February as the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its annual benchmark revisions to the consumer price index. Memories of the previous year’s revisions, which sharply erased reported disinflation and sparked an aggressive sell-off, had left trading desks on edge. This time, however, the statistical adjustments delivered sweet relief.

The Statistical Reprieve

The revised figures showed that the core CPI deceleration in late 2023 was virtually unchanged, confirming that the disinflationary trend was authentic rather than an artifact of faulty seasonal modeling. While month-on-month core prints were nudged slightly higher in some periods, the broader trajectory toward price stability remained fully intact. Central bankers and fixed-income allocators can trust the headline disinflation narrative.

The annual CPI revisions confirmed that late-2023’s disinflation was genuine, removing a major overhang of model risk and validating the Federal Reserve’s gradual pivot toward eventual easing.