The Lombard Review

Powell admits cuts will take longer

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Photo: Saopaulo1/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.5

Jerome Powell completed a significant rhetorical retreat on 16 April, officially acknowledging what bond markets had been pricing for weeks: that persistent inflation will delay prospective interest rate cuts. Speaking in Washington following three consecutive months of hotter-than-expected inflation prints, Powell admitted that it will take 'longer than expected' to gain the confidence needed to ease policy.

The central section of a store.
The central section of a store. Photo: Northwest Retail/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 2.0

Surrendering the Pivot

Powell’s remarks marked the formal dismantling of the aggressive easing narrative initiated at the December FOMC meeting. By affirming that the central bank is prepared to hold benchmark rates at 5.25–5.50 per cent for as long as necessary, the Fed chair effectively aligned institutional guidance with market reality. The dream of a painless summer rate cut has been abandoned.

An oil products tanker in the North Sea.
An oil products tanker in the North Sea. Photo: Frans Berkelaar/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0

Powell’s admission that rate cuts must wait reflects a painful institutional surrender to persistent inflation data, cementing high borrowing costs across the economy.

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